🌀 CSU increases 2024 hurricane forecast to 25 storms

Colorado State University's hurricane experts have revised their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now predicting 25 named storms, up from their initial prediction of 23. This adjustment comes as Hurricane Beryl continues its record-breaking journey. The team attributes this increase to extremely high sea surface temperatures across the development region for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Of the predicted storms, twelve are expected to become hurricanes, with six reaching category 3 or higher. 🌪️

The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate Research unit has already identified three storms this season: Alberto, Beryl, and Chris. Over the next five months, there is a 62% chance of at least one more major hurricane tracking across the Caribbean. The team, led by Philip J. Klotzbach, anticipates a cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the hurricane season, leading to reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. The team also predicts an above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. 🌀

Despite the increased forecast, the team reminds coastal residents that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. They encourage thorough preparations every season, regardless of predicted activity. The team's confidence in this year's forecast is higher than normal for a July prediction, due to the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favourable large-scale environmental conditions. 🌊