🌀 Atlantic region anticipates active hurricane season

Researchers from Colorado State University are predicting an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season this year. The team forecasts a total of 23 named storms, a slight decrease from their initial prediction of 25. Four storms have already occurred, suggesting that we may see another 19 in the coming three to four months. The experts also warn that ten or more of these storms could escalate to hurricane strength, with at least four expected to reach Category 3 or higher. 🌊

The updated forecast for August takes into account newly available data as the peak of the storm season approaches. The forecasters have a higher than usual confidence in their prediction, citing very warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic as the main factor for an above-average season. Warm ocean water serves as a fuel source for hurricanes, and it also leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, conditions that favor hurricanes. Additionally, observed vertical wind shear during June and July was significantly below normal, which generally indicates continued below-average shear during the peak season from August to October. 🌀

The researchers also noted that the potential transition to La Niña conditions in the coming weeks would weaken upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, favoring not just the formation but also the intensification of storms. Even if La Niña conditions do not occur, the team anticipates cool ENSO neutral conditions, which, combined with the very warm Atlantic, would likely result in a significantly above-normal season. 🌧️